Presidential Nomination Update: Sanders Still Around, GOP Convention Convoluted

This election has certainly been evolving into one of the most unusual in American political history. As it stands, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are their respective party’s frontrunners (at least according to betting markets), but the race is certainly not over on either side of the aisle.

Hillary Clinton is still up against Bernie Sanders’ grassroots movement, which has repeatedly defied expectations as the Democratic contest has continued to a point when much of the establishment thought it would be all but over. National polling shows Clinton’s margin over Sanders is continuing to narrow (he wins in a recent poll), and Michigan proved to be an unprecedented upset to Clinton’s seemingly inevitable nomination.

Sanders’ message has certainly not died among the populace either, as evidenced by a week of resounding victories. From Utah to Hawaii, Sanders has delivered an upset to the establishment (and pollsters in many cases), with as much as 82% of the vote. Clinton does, however, command a sizable lead in pledged delegates (1,243 to 975 as of this article’s publication) and an all but insurmountable lead in DNC superdelegates (469 to 29). She is widely seen by the media and many voters as the inevitable nominee, and with this title, she has focused more of her attacks on Republican candidates, most notably Donald Trump. Sanders looks to upcoming contests in the West and the Northeast to deliver his biggest upsets yet and claim the Democratic nomination at the July convention in Philadelphia.

Trump has emerged from the world of business to become one of the most controversial political figures in America (and around the world) and the GOP’s frontrunner in the election. He has continued to overwhelm the establishment with victories across the nation, and polling shows his lead has continued to increase after once-frontrunners Rubio and Carson dropped out.

His two remaining opponents, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas and Governor John Kasich of Ohio, have attempted to consolidate support with varied success. Kasich has largely appealed to the more moderate GOP base, while Cruz has appealed to the large evangelical and traditional conservative demographic. Polling shows Trump earning the support of many parts of the political spectrum.

Trump maintains that he has the mandate of the people and that a non-Trump nomination would be a blow to the voters. Cruz and Kasich, however, can take solace in the fact that Trump may not be on track to win the necessary 1,237 delegates. There are currently 944 of the 2,472 delegates up for grabs. Trump currently stands with 739, Cruz with 465, and Kasich with 143. To avoid a contested convention, Trump needs to earn the support of 53% of the remaining delegates, Cruz needs 82%, and Kasich cannot attain the nomination without a contested convention.

Earning the support of at least 53% of the remaining delegates is no small feat, and history shows that the outcome of a contested convention is often not favorable to the candidate with the plurality of the delegate. The 1952 GOP convention, the most recent example, ended with Eisenhower as the nominee, despite him not being the frontrunner.

Amidst such a peculiar election cycle, the only point of consensus among the voters, it seems, is that this election is unlike any other.