On January 15th, Israeli and Hamas signed a ceasefire and took an essential step closer to ending the conflict that has claimed the lives of thousands of civilians on both sides. The deal took effect on January 19th and has resulted in the release of 18 hostages held by Hamas to date.
The conflict began 15 months ago when Hamas launched an attack into Israel, massacring 1,139 people and capturing around 250 hostages. In response, Israel invaded Gaza, the city controlled by the Iran-backed terrorist group. The Gazan health ministry reports over 47,000 Palestinian casualties, but does not distinguish between militants and civilians.
The conflict has widened into a broader confrontation between Israel and Iran’s so-called “Axis of Resistance” which includes Hamas, Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, and other terrorist groups backed by Iran. Israel has severely weakened Tehran’s military capabilities over the course of its campaign in Gaza, invasion of Lebanon, and assassinations of terrorist leaders.
The Negotiations
The ceasefire was the culmination of months of negotiations led by the US, Qatar, and Egypt. The current deal was first proposed by President Biden in May 2024 and agreed to by Israel and Hamas on January 15th, 2025. The negotiators had to overcome the deep distrust between the parties as well as last minute demands from both sides to negotiate the final deal.
President Trump’s influence was crucial to the peace deal. Amos Harel, a defense analyst for Israeli newspaper Haaretz, writes that “the main factor in this new reality is Trump. What changed between July 2024, when Israel balked at a cease-fire agreement, and January, when it accepted more or less the same deal, is simple: Trump had won the election and was preparing to take office.” Trump assigned Steve Witkoff, his friend and a real estate developer to be his special envoy to the Middle East. Despite Witkoff’s lack of diplomatic experience, he was crucial in pressuring Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to accept the deal.
The Hostages and the Prisoners
Of the about 250 hostages captured by Hamas on October 7th, about 100—some dead—are thought to still be in Gaza. Previously, 105 hostages were released during a week-long ceasefire in November of 2023. The Israeli military has at various times throughout the war rescued hostages and has recovered the bodies of more than 35 hostages from Gaza.
As part of the deal, Hamas has agreed to release 33 hostages over the 6 weeks following the beginning of the ceasefire. In return, Israel has agreed to release more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, some of whom were serving life sentences. The released Palestinians also include people who were detained on suspicion of terrorism and held without trial. The release of Palestinian prisoners has prompted outrage among the Israeli far-right. Israeli settlers in the West Bank responded with two nights of violent rioting that targeted the prisoner releases as well as Palestinian villages.
Hamas has turned the release of the hostages into a public humiliation calculated to maximize Israeli rage. The hostages have been paraded in front of jeering crowds, forced to make their way through massive—seemingly hostile—crowds, and Hamas even forced 4 released female soldiers to appear on stage, smile, and wave. These events have led to Israeli threats to withhold prisoner releases and have threatened to sink the entire ceasefire deal.
The Future
The deal will be carried out in 3 stages: a first 6-week stage seeing the release of hostages, an immediate ceasefire, a withdrawal of Israeli forces from parts of Gaza, and the return of civilians and aid to Gaza; a second stage that aims to establish a permanent ceasefire, complete the Israeli withdrawal, and see the release of the remaining hostages; and a final stage that will oversee the reconstruction of Gaza.
Negotiations for the second phase are set to begin on February 3rd. However, the situation remains extremely volatile. It is also unclear whether or not US foreign policy will continue to support the current ceasefire and peace plan. President Trump has said that his plan is to “clean out” Gaza.