Student athlete by day, weatherboy wonder by night, Sam Ebby has correctly predicted every snow day this year during the third most snowy winter in Pennsylvania history. In addition to holding an astonishing accuracy rate, Sam has created a popular Facebook page, Northeast Weather, with over 13,000 followers. So, who is this psychic mystery man, and how does he know so much about this white stuff falling from the sky?

Sam, a sophomore, has been predicting the weather since he was seven. At age five, he became fascinated by thunder, lightning, and snow. “Is snow really God’s dandruff?” and “Why is electricity falling from the sky?” the bobbly-headed blonde wondered. Finally, he decided that he had to know when and how the weather was going to happen.  Beginning in 2004, curious Ebby would wake up every day and record the weather. He would look for patterns in data and compare it to history while observing seasonal anomalies.  “Every month and year is another piece of the puzzle!” Sam says.

Sam has a surefire step-by-step process for predicting the weather. He starts with the season, “It’s winter time, so I’m looking for snow.” The pressure will either be high or low, depending on the most common weather conditions for the season.  The next step is seeking numerical data or computer model guidance. When looking at the patterns of storms, Sam uses various computer models, such as the Global Forecasting System (GFS), the European Center for Mid-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the North American Model (NAMF), and the Canadian Met Center (CMC).

Though these models are high-tech and professionally operated, they have multiple runs a day, which creates uncertainty.  Inaccurate meteorologists create predictions based solely on these models, but Sam is no basic meteorologist – he has a secret weapon.  Water vapor imagery allows observation of the jet stream and indicates the highest concentration of water vapor. “I’m more reliable than other meteorologists because I keep a close eye on visible sat observations that allow me to look at energy entering the West Coast,” Sam explains.

In his entire weather-predicting career, this truly reliable meteorologist has only been wrong three times! His biggest slip-up was in 2012, when he predicted a fairly snowy winter that turned out to be flurry-less. The only other times this master meteorologist had made a mistake was during the April Fool’s Day storm and the Groundhog Day snowstorm in 2011, providing him with an uncanny accuracy rate.

Now well-known around Harriton, Sam’s forecasts have gone nation-wide with his Facebook page, Northeast Weather, which has reached 13,638 followers. His page was created because of a storm that hit this area on January 26, 2011. This storm was one of the biggest in the history of Philadelphia and Sam had predicted its intensity two weeks in advance. At the time, he was projecting his predictions on small blogs and forums rather than on a Facebook page. When Sam made his infamous prediction for January 26, 2011, many of these blogs and forums mocked or banned him for “spreading hype.” Imagine their embarrassment when Sam’s forecast was completely accurate.

The mistaken taunts of larger weather sites motivated Sam to create Northeast Weather, a page that has grown exponentially since its creation. Some of Northeast Weather’s largest moments of net growth include the predictions of Hurricanes Sandy and Irene. The page has recently been linked to Twitter, Blogger, YouTube, and Instagram.

Though his page has reached record popularity, Sam does not plan on stopping any time soon. “I want to get a website going and get advertisements. I’ve looked into buying the domain northeastweather.com,” Sam reveals. In addition to expanding his page, Sam is still making forecasts. “I predict snow February 27- 28. February has warmed up because the jet stream went north, but as the polar vortex drops to the south, we will feel our final arctic blast.” Further in the future, Sam foretells what he calls a “slop storm” from March 6^th to 8^th and then a possible nor’easter April 16^th. Finally, he predicts a warmer summer then usual. 

This weatherboy genius is a man to watch. For weather updates from Sam, subscribe to Northeast Weather on Facebook or visit Northeast Weather on Twitter, Youtube, or Blogger.